Mar 282012

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 03.28.12

03/28/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.6%
Core Actual: 1.6%
Previous revision:+0.2% to -3.0%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual:2.2%
Previous Revision:+0.4% to -3.6%
Started @ 106.13
Peak @ 106.02 / retrace to 106.15 – 0331 (1 min)
-11 / 2 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast with the more influential core reading, while the regular reading fell short, and there were small upward revisions to the previous reports. This prevented the market from executing a spike. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 106.05 with slippage and observed the market retreat to bob between 10 ticks in the red and the breakeven point. I setup a buy limit at the breakeven point and my order filled about halfway through the :01 candle. You could also manually close when you see the price close to breakeven, but you are not likely to secure the best exit that way. Notice the low point of the :01 candle is a triple bottom with the :28 and :15 candles before it. If you waited this one out, you would have gotten lucky and seen a small profit on the :03 candle as it briefly dipped through the S2 line.