Apr 162012

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12

4/16/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual:0.8%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual:0.8%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 1.0%
Started @ 102.55
1st Peak @ 102.69 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.04 – 0251 (21 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 102.84 – 0315 (45 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report was positive, exceeding the forecast across the board causing a small upward initial spike that ran into SMAs on higher level charts and could not penetrate the 102.69 area. Still after retracing the initial spike and using the 200 SMA on the 1 min chart as support, it rebounded for a great 2nd peak on the :33 candle that went for nearly 50 ticks over 18 minutes. Since this report always has a 2nd peak. with JOBB I would either ride the heat and move my stop loss to just below the 200 SMA, or close out on with a small loss or BE on the spike and setup another long entry in anticipation of another rally at the 102.58 area. With the flat sideways activity between 0247 and 0313, this would not be a good setup to trade a reversal.