May 052013

CL 05-13 (1 Min)  3_21_2013

3/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 336K
Started @ 93.24
1st Peak @ 93.16 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.43 – 0841 (11 min)
27 ticks

Notes:  Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 7K jobs, causing an 8 tick short spike that quickly reversed 14 ticks by the end of the :31 bar.  The initial drop crossed the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot right on top of each other at 93.20.  With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 93.18 with 1 tick of slippage just below the overlapping support, then seen it pop back long and hover around 5 ticks in the red until about 5 sec left of the bar.  Look to close out there.  After that it would have taken out your stop loss of 8 ticks.  With the news being positive, the initial short move was likely a robotic HFT in the wrong direction.  The bullish sentiment prevailed in the following 10 min, causing an extended reversal of 27 ticks, eclipsing the OOD on the :41 bar.  Then it chopped sideways until the pit open initiated a selloff.