Caption for 4/1:
4/1/2013 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 51.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.22
1st Peak @ 96.00 – 1003 (3 min)
22 ticks
Reversal to 96.17 – 1004 (4 min)
17 ticks
2nd Peak @ 95.92 – 1011 (11 min)
30 ticks
Reversal to 96.33 – 1029 (29 min)
41 ticks
Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast by a healthy margin. This caused a 22 tick short spike on the :01 bar that hit the S2 Pivot as it bottomed, and used the 50 SMA as support as it was correcting before the report. It rebounded off of the S2 Pivot for 17 ticks almost to the 13 SMA, then fell for a relatively small 2nd peak of only 8 more ticks as it extended the LOD. Normally such a disappointing report would have elicited about a 60 tick short move in total, but the market was trading over 120 ticks lower than the open, so the oversold sentiment was restraining the bears. Then it reversed for 41 ticks in about 18 min to eclipse the 100 SMA.. With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at 96.17. You could exit around 96.05 on the :01 bar with about 12 ticks. Knowing the reaction takes several minutes to pan out, look for it to interact with the S2 Pivot and eventually conquer it. When it failed to do that, noticing the MACD and 13/20 SMA crossings, exit at the 96.11 area at worst.