May 062013

CL 05-13 (1 Min)  4_12_2013

4/12/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (1230 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 90.95
1st Peak @ 91.17 – 1233 (3 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1243 (13 min)
31 ticks

Notes:  FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the “Resilience and Rebuilding for Low-Income Communities” Conference sponsored by the Federal Reserve System Community Affairs Officers, in Washington DC. He did not discuss QE3, but spoke about low income housing and the housing market as a whole.  With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 91.00 with no slippage on the :02 bar.  This is a case where the first bar would not have filled as it only moved 4 ticks on either side of the anchor point.  Be patient and wait for the :02 bar.  With the 50 and 200 SMAs looming above, watch the initial interaction and move the stop loss up to 1-2 ticks lower than the 200 SMA.  When the bars after the :03 could not achieve a higher level and no bar was able to establish space above the 200 SMA, look to exit around 91.08 before it hits your stop loss.  Then you would secure 3-8 ticks. The reversal reclaimed 31 ticks, eclipsing the 100 SMA in 10 min.   Even though this was Friday afternoon news, it still was a safe opportunity and relatively tame.