May 092013

CL 05-13 (1 Min)  4_17_2013

4/17/2013 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast:  n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.82 – 1401 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.96 – 1407 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 86.62 – 1430 (30 min)
34 ticks

Notes:  The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy overall was expanding at a moderate pace last month, specifically noting increases in manufacturing activity. The DX slowly trended upward, and then accelerated after 1430, so it had little influence on the CL.  This resulted in a spike of 15 ticks that was unsustainable on the :01 bar, but was matched on the :02/:03 bars as it eclipsed the 200 SMA.  Then after 5 min, it was able to clear the 200 SMA and achieve a 2nd peak of 29 ticks on the :07 bar, but that was it. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 86.74 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait patiently for a move after a few min.  Since the oil inventory report had caused a large selloff that was correcting, the market is slightly bullish in the very short term.  Use that to your advantage when patiently waiting for penetration of the 200 SMA.  With little movement on the DX, you could exit after the :07 bar, or after 13 crossed the 20 SMA at about 1422 with 10 – 20 ticks.  After that, the reversal crossed the 200 SMA and reclaimed 34 ticks a few min later.