May 082013

CL 06-13 (1 Min)  4_30_2013

4/30/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence  (1000 EDT)
Forecast:  61.4
Actual:  68.1
Previous revision:  +2.2 to 61.9
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.87 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 1028 (28 min)
57 ticks

Notes:  Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin but was caught in very bearish sentiment causing a muted 12 tick spike that was against the grain.  It ran into the 13 SMA and the S1 Mid Pivot arresting the long move.  With JOBB you would have filled long at 93.81 with about  1 tick of slippage.  Given the conditions and that it was just barely above the threshold of a dull report, move your stop loss up to near Breakeven and try to exit with a few ticks on the profit side or minimize the loss with the tight stop loss.  The reversal continued the bearish trend for 57 ticks, bottoming in between the S1 and S2 Mid Pivots. Then it corrected a bit upward.