May 162012

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.16.12

5/16/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 2.1M
Started @ 93.28
1st Peak @ 93.63 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.16 – 0446 (16 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 92.78 – 0509 (39 min)
138 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively small initial spike. With the market in a slight up trend before the report, all the SMAs were below the price action. The initial spike was reined in by the crossing of the S1 Pivot halfway up to its peak. With JOBB you would have filled long. The peak of 93.63 was hit early in the candle, but it rose to that level again twice so a sell limit placed near the top of the wick would have filled. When the :32 bar did not drop significantly, it is going for a higher 2nd peak. The reversal fought through all the SMAs and the S1/S2 Pivots to make a double bottom 20 ticks below the S2 Pivot.