CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.13.12

6/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -0.4% to -0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.86
1st Peak @ 82.68 – 0234 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 83.03 – 0239 (9 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.34 – 0246 (16 min)
52 ticks (from origin)

Reversal to 82.67 – 0306 (36 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, falling short of the forecast across the board with large downward revisions to both previous reports. PPI broke at the same same and was also strongly negative. With everything so bearish, we would expect a stronger short reaction initially. Looking at a higher order chart we see a strong pivot at the 82.65-82.70 area and the S1 Pivot was at 82.73. The market had also sold off about $1 in the last 4.5 hrs. The initial drop tested that then bounced up 35 ticks before gaining the momentum to break through for a 2nd peak of 52 ticks to 82.34(the 44-46 bars were strong and decisively red). The reversal reclaimed 33 ticks in 20 min after the 2nd peak. The market chopped a little lower and hit 82.15 before climbing back up to 83.15 before the inventory report possibly on the tail end of the influence of this report.