-062012.jpg "Click to enlarge")
6/20/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.29 (0632)
1st Peak @ 81.55 – 0634 (2 min)
74 ticks
Reverse to 82.18 – 0635 (3 min)
63 ticks
2nd Peak @ 81.43 – 0641 (9 min)
86 ticks
Reverse to 82.90 – 0709 (37 min)
147 ticks
Notes: *Report broke 2 min late at 0632. Report mildly disappointed in that the FOMC expanded “Operation Twist” in an attempt to lower long term interest rates to initiate more borrowing, but the markets were pricing in and hoping for more stimulus. The dollar rallied initially causing the dip in oil, then it sold off sharply in the following 30 min accounting for the strong reversal. If you are looking to place a trade, do not use JOBB, but manual entries are okay if you follow a news feed and keep a close eye on how the DX index reacts. With the rally on the dollar, keep an eye on it until it starts to turn. When it does, buy the dip on oil in the 81.70 area at about 0645. Then stay in until the DX turns or oil crosses the 13 and 20 at about 0718. Another good place to exit is when you see it eclipse the 200 SMA, then retreat back to it.