Jul 192012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

7/19/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 386K
Started @ 91.50
1st Peak @ 91.24 – 0234 (4 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 91.52 – 0242 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report came in considerably worse than the forecast by nearly 20K jobs. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks drawn out over 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, and sought out the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 28 ticks to the level before the report was released on the :42 bar. The short move that started on the :49 bar may have been a 2nd peak, but the influence of jobless claims is normally only felt on the spikes until a max of 15 min, so I conservatively left it off. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. If you exited at the 100 SMA, that would have been a wise and safe move for minimal gain, but when it did not retrace above the 100 SMA, it has conviction to drop. Then the 200 SMA is an ideal exit.