Jul 262012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

7/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
Started @ 89.64
1st Peak @ 89.89 – 0231 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.44 – 0238 (8 min)
80 ticks

Reverse to 89.84 – 0305 (35 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with upward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. Unemployment claims also broke at the same time with a strongly positive reading. The aggregate of the news was bullish, causing the initial spike and 2nd peak. The 1st peak ran into the R1 Pivot and retraced on the :32 bar. The negative core reading and the R1 Pivot caused the red bar. Then the market was able to rally again for a 2nd peak of 80 ticks by the :38 bar. After a double top, the reversal was able to achieve 60 ticks on the :05 bar, 35 min after the report. With JOBB, you could have made 12 ticks on the initial spike. When the :32 and :33 bars did not drop below the 100 SMA, that is a great setup for a long entry for the 2nd peak. Exit after the long green bar at :36 before you get a correction.