Aug 022012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

8/2/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 375K
Actual: 365K
Started @ 89.25
1st Peak @ 89.63 – 0233 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 88.84 – 0238 (8 min)
79 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10K jobs. Since traders were waiting on the tea leaves from the ECB press conference, this caused a muted :31 bar followed by a large spike on the :32 and :33 bars for 38 ticks due to a drop in the dollar. When the ECB conference disappointed, the dollar rallied strongly causing oil to selloff. This had little to do with the unemployment claims, but occurred at the same time and caused the nosedive from :37 bar to about an hour later. I only gave credit for the reversal to the tail on the :38 bar just above the PP Pivot, since it bounced from there and the claims influence was little if anything after that point.