May 312012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

5/31/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 88.57
1st Peak@ 88.47 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 88.67 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.07 – 0246 (16 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 88.45 – 0300 (30 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, but was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims which came in fairly negative. With a matching GDP reading, most of the attention was given to the unemployment claims. The market had been in a selling mood prior to the report, so all 3 major SMAs were above the action. This resulted in a small first peak of 10 ticks, a reversal, then a 2nd peak of 50 ticks that took about 10 min to pan out. This report was not recommended to trade with JOBB due to the combined release, but the 2nd peak would have been a good manual trade. When you see the :39 to :42 bars go sideways and fail to rise above the 13 SMA, that is a good entry for a short trade in the 88.58 area. I would exit on the 44 bar after 2 long red bars and the long tail developed for at least 30 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 38 ticks in 14 min to peak at the pit open.