Aug 142012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.14.12

8/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: -0.4% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Started @ 93.58
1st Peak @ 93.69 / Reversal to 93.48 – 0231 (1 min)
11 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 93.24 – 0247 (17 min)
45 ticks (2x)

Notes: Report was a big mixed bag causing indecision. On the one hand, we had the core and regular readings exceed the forecast by a healthy margin. Then we saw the previous revisions negatively correct the last months report significantly. PPI also broke at the same time with a matching report, which normally would be inconsequential, but in this case added fuel to the indecisive sentiment. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 93.67, then seen it retreat to hover at 93.64 to 93.69 in the next 12 sec. Close out there with minimal loss/gain. If you did not close out, you would have seen it march toward your stop loss and hit it at :44 sec into the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it spiked up to 93.77 twice and found solid resistance, then fell down to 93.24, crossing all 3 major SMAs, finding solid support just below the PP Pivot.