Aug 312012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.31.12

8/31/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 95.93
Peak @ 96.14 – 0401 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 94.91 – 0408 (8 min)
123 ticks

Recover up to 96.04 – 0422 (22 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Factory Orders broke at the same time and resulted in the biggest rise in a year. This caused the the long spike of 21 ticks on the :01 bar. The spike crossed the 100 SMA and then hit resistance just below the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA causing it to bounce lower. As the speech was being delivered to the Economic symposium, the perception was initially hawkish as the dollar rallied and stimulus was downplayed. This caused the CL to selloff. Then after 10 min, the perception changed resulting in the dollar falling and oil rallying. If factory orders had not released at the same time, the market would have simply fallen for about 10 min, then rebounded without the long spike on the :01 bar. Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).