Sep 122012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.12.12

9/12/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8M
Actual: 2.0M
Started @ 97.25
1st Peak @ 97.44 / Reverse to 96.31 / Settle @ 97.01 – 0431 (1 min)
19 ticks / -113 ticks / 70 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a similar loss was expected caused a violent and whipsawing reaction. This happens about once every 4 months it seems. With JOBB setting up at about :55 seconds, you would have filled long on a 20 tick premature spike before the report, then rapidly stopped out on the violent reversal less than 1 sec later. With a top to bottom range of over 100 ticks and heavy volume, it would be a good strategy to set up a trap trade in the aftermath just inside of the top and bottom of the range. It never got close to either area again, so cancel that after about 10 min. The premature spike crossed the 50 / 200 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP / S1 Pivots, before bouncing off support on the S2 Pivot.