Sep 192012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.19.12

9/19/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2M
Actual: 8.5M
Started @ 92.79
1st Peak @ 92.21 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 93.11 – 0441 (11 min)
90 ticks

Notes: Large gain in inventory when nearly no change was expected caused a healthy short spike for 58 ticks in 1 min. This was the strongest gain and offset from the forecast in 5 months and due to a spontaneous release of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the market had already sold off about $2 in the 90 min before the report. Still the drop carved out a new LOD and sustained most of the drop until the new bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.59 with 10 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 20 or more ticks as it hovered around 92.35 for several seconds. The market was already trading below all 3 major SMAs at the report release and testing the support of the S3 Pivot at the time of the release. The oversold condition and the strong support of the S3 Pivot prevented a much larger drop. After the spike on the :31 bar, it reversed strongly for 47 ticks on the :32 bar then another 43 ticks in the next 9 min, crossing the 50 SMA. Then it eventually stepped lower in the next several hours as the gravity sunk in.