Sep 132012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.13.12

9/13/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0630 HI time / 1230 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 97.67 (0631)
1st Peak @ 98.74 – 0632 (1 min)
107 ticks

Reversal to 96.84 – 0638 (7 min)
190 ticks

Notes: Report released 1 min late, but the FED finally acted, executing QE3 by unleashing an open ended mortgage backed bond buying program at $40 Billion/month. As this caused heavy volatility based on the dollar, we saw a long spike of more than 100 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. The large gain was outmatched by the successive collapse in the next 7 min of 190 ticks. It continued to swing largely up and down even after the pit closed at 0830. With nearly 200 ticks range on the swings, this is a good opportunity to buy the dips only. Since the dollar will be falling, the overriding influence on the CL will be bullish, so buy the dips – 0638, 0653 (at the PP Pivot), 0803 (on the 100 SMA). Also notice the peak on the 0828 bar is a double top with the 1st peak @ 0632.