Sep 142012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.14.12

9/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.6%
Started @ 99.90
1st Peak @ 100.11 – 0232 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 99.56 – 0246 (16 min)
55 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive, but barely exceeded the forecast on the core and regular readings while enduring a downward revision on the previous regular reading. Core CPI broke at the same time and was slightly negative. Since the market had just eclipsed the $100 level for the first time in 5 months, it was in a corrective downtrend. The aggregate of the news caused a brief rally against the grain for 21 ticks that hit the 50 SMA and then fell into the reversal. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 99.97 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks as it bounced between the 13 and 50 SMAs. The reversal reclaimed 55 ticks in 16 min, stepping lower and using the 13 as resistance.