Sep 262012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 09.26.12

9/26/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7M
Actual: -2.4M
Started @ 89.74
1st Peak @ 90.24 – 0431 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 89.12 – 0437 (7 min)
112 ticks

Notes: Moderate loss in inventory when a moderate gain was expected caused a healthy long spike for 50 ticks in 1 min. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Pivot, but was repelled by the 200 SMA, leaving 20 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 89.85 with 11 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with about 25-30 ticks as it hovered around 90.15 for several seconds. As the market was already in a downtrend, the spike and follow on bars could not penetrate the 100 or 200 SMAs, then the reversal took hold for over 100 ticks, mostly on the :37 bar. After the reversal, it chopped sideways for another 20 min, then slowly rose to correct the steep dro