Oct 102012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

10/10/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Started @ 91.91
1st Peak @ 91.77 – 0801 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 91.98 – 0802 (2 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.02 – 0823 (23 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.40 – 0832 (32 min)
38 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding “modestly” last month, supported by improvements in housing and auto sales, even as the labor market showed little change. Initially the report was modestly positive overall and caused a small uptick in the DX, resulting in a meager short spike of 14 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot briefly. Then it rebounded and traded sideways for 15 min between the 50 and 100 SMAs, before heading south for the 2nd peak of 89 ticks on the :15 – :23 bars as the DX rallied strongly. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 91.82, then had an opportunity close out with a handful of ticks. With the previous hour or so showing strong support at and below the PP Pivot, do not get greedy on this and look for more ticks. The longer term reaction was able to deliver a bigger yield which is often the case with this report. Ensure you are flat by 1430 when the pit closes.