Oct 172012

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.17.12

10/17/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.4M
Actual: 2.9M
Started @ 92.57
1st Peak @ 92.40 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.65 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.55 – 0511 (41 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 92.07 – 0540 (70 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused slow developing short reaction that had to contend with the SMAs. Initially the short reaction could not challenge the 200 SMA and retreated upward. The second attempt was successful and triggered a fan for a 40 min selloff. Unfortunately with JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.47, then gotten stopped out when it retreated up to 92.65. The selling impetus was not initially strong enough to punch through the 200 SMA. If you had been quick, I would advise moving the stop loss a few ticks higher to above the 50 SMA, then you would have been safe to ride the heat and catch the profit on the delayed short move. The 2nd peak claimed over 100 ticks in 41 min to bottom out just above the S1 Pivot, then the reversal retreated upward for 52 ticks in 30 min crossing the PP Pivot and the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.