Oct 152012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

10/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
Started @ 92.26
1st Peak @ 92.43 – 0231 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.11 – 0243 (13 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive on both the core and actual reading including an upward revision on the previous readings. Empire State manufacturing broke at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market had just hit the HOD and was in a bearish correction, the long spike was relatively small and could not go above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 92.34 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks just below the 50 SMA where it hovered. The bearish sentiment and the negative Empire State report caused the reversal to take over quickly and make a short move to the 200 SMA 10 min later for 32 ticks.