Oct 262012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.26.12

10/26/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 1.3%
Started @ 85.83
1st Peak @ 86.17 – 0231 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 85.98 – 0232 (2 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.34 – 0239/0255 (9/25 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 85.69 – 0320 (50 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast but still showed relatively anemic growth. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. The initial spike yielded 34 ticks and only had to cross the PP Pivot close to the origin. The market was basically neutral prior to the report having initiated a bullish trend, but enduring a minor correction right before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 85.93 with 3 ticks of slippage. I set my exit at 86.13 and filled easily with 20 ticks. I placed a secondary order, buying at 85.99 at the bottom of the :32 bar and planned to ride it for about 30 or so ticks. Unfortunately I closed out on the tail of the :36 bar with 1 tick loss when I thought it was going to continue short. Had I been more patient, I would have exited on the :39 bar with 30 ticks. The choppy path of ascending indicates volatility and lack of conviction. In this case do not look to stay in a trend trade for 30 min. After it hit the 2nd peak of 51 ticks on the :39 bar, it traded sideways for another 15 min before reversing for 65 ticks. The reversal crossed the 50, then 100, and almost reached the 200 SMA.