Nov 022012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

11/2/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 123K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 171K
Previous Revision: +34K to 148K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
Started @ 86.40
1st Peak @ 87.10 – 0231 (1 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 86.54 – 0232 (2 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 85.27 – 0449 (139 min)
183 ticks

Notes: After the October surprise, this report corrected somewhat, but a large correction is still likely in the future. Nearly 50k more jobs were created than the forecast, with a forecast matching rate, but an uptick of 0.1% from October. The market initially reacted long on the jobs news in the first bar, crossing the PP Pivot and peaking 5 ticks above the HOD for 70 ticks. Then it pulled back strongly to the 13 SMA for 56 ticks. It tried to climb again for a 2nd peak, but could go no higher than 87.03, 7 ticks off the 1st peak. Then it began an epic reversal reacting to the uptick in the rate for 183 ticks over the next 2 hrs.
With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 86.57 with about 7 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 70 ticks, hit its peak instantaneously, then proceeded to chop lower to the end of the bar. I would setup a sell limit at or just above the PP Pivot (86.86 – 86.90). It would have popped up to 86.95 at 20-25 sec into the candle and allowed your order to be filled with about 30 ticks of profit.