Nov 052012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.05.12

11/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 85.04
1st Peak @ 85.12 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 84.87 – 0507 (7 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report exceeded the forecast. The minimal offset from the forecast would not have filled a 5 tick buffer on JOBB until 40 sec into the bar, so you should have cancelled the order when it did not fill. If you did not, you would have filled at 85.09 then had a brief opportunity for only 2 ticks, then seen it retreat lower to bounce between a 10 tick loss and 1-2 tick profit. The presence of all 3 major SMAs kept the reaction restrained in a 25 tick range, 10 ticks above the highest SMA and 10 ticks below the lowest SMA. This is the first non-profitable instance of this report in 15 months, but would have been a push if you cancelled out.