Nov 142012

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.14.12

11/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.3%
Started @ 85.39
1st Peak @ 85.29 – 0331 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 85.49 – 0331 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.93 – 0401 (31 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 85.65 – 0423 (53 min)
72 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild upward revision on the previous readings. PPI at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market was caught in the middle of the SMAs, it initially took a short dive of 10 ticks and ran into the PP Pivot to retrace upward to cross the 50 SMA then hit the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.30 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then likely been stopped out on the retracement. Even with the initial indecision, it found its true direction for a 2nd peak, crossing the PP Pivot, trading mostly sideways, then another drop after the pit open. Then it reversed for 72 ticks in the next 20 min. Given the overall bearish nature of the news and the predictable tendency of a 2nd peak, a secondary short entry in the 85.44 area on the :32-:34 bars would be wise.