2/21/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 1.9
Actual: 4.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 93.02
1st Peak @ 92.87 – 1101 (1 min)
15 ticks
Reversal to 93.24 – 1101 (1 min)
37 ticks
Notes: Much larger gain in crude inventories than expected, while gasoline and distillates both saw healthy drops. This prompted an initial short spike of 15 ticks on the oil gain that eventually reversed in the later part of the bar on the gas and distillate drop. It was straddling the 50/100 SMAs the entire time. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 92.89 with 1 tick of slippage and narrowly avoided the stop loss on the quick retracement. Then you would have seen it bob between 12 ticks in the red and 2 ticks in the green until 20 sec into the bar when the reversal would have hit your stop loss if you had not closed out yet. This is a case of a heavy tug of war with strong opposing readings, making it a losing proposition.