Apr 202013

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3_26_2013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast:  0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
Started @ 95.59
1st Peak @ 95.52 – 0831 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.41 – 0838 (8 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 95.88 – 0918 (48 min)
47 ticks

Notes:  Report came in as bipolar causing though not as much as last month causing a dull reaction.  As long as you canceled the order within 38 sec, you would not have filled.  Remember the rules state to cancel the order after 15 sec with no fill.  The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive.  This caused a dull 7 tick short move that achieved 11 more ticks after 8 min, eclipsing the 100 SMA.  Then it reversed for a methodical rebound of 47 ticks in the next 40 min, riding the 13 and 20 SMAs.  Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month.  Even if you had filled short at 95.54, it would have stayed between 3 ticks in the red and 2 in the green for the next few bars, so it would not have been a significant loss.