4/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 346K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1561.6
1st Peak @ 1555.5 – 0832 (2 min)
61 ticks
Reversal to 1561.7 – 0919 (49 min)
62 ticks
Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast by 16K jobs, causing a 61 tick short spike on 2 bars. The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, bottoming in between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot. This area was a proven support area from 90 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1560.2 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the decisive news, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The 200 SMA served as support briefly, then it was decisively conquered on the :32 bar. If you exited on the :31 bar, you could have taken about 12 ticks, but if you were patient and waited on the :32 bar, you could have exited with more than 40 ticks with ease. After it stalled out near the peak for about 5 min, it developed enough stored up divergence to rebound back to the origin. The reversal took over 45 min and struggled for about 30 min to conquer the SMAs for 62 ticks. After that it stepped up for several higher peaks.