Jan 302014

HG 03-14 (1 Min)  1_22_2014

1/22/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 50.6
Actual: 49.6
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 3.3315
1st Peak @ 3.3225 – 2049 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.3265 – 2051 (6 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.3180 – 2135 (50 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 3.3235 – 2219 (94 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report moderately disappointed the traders, with no previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 18 ticks that started just below the S1 Mid Pivot, crossed all 3 major SMAs, and eventually reached the S2 Pivot / LOD on the :48/:49 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.3295 with about 1 tick of slippage. In this case we have the 100/200 SMAs and S2 Mid Pivot in play on the :46 bar, which together make up a strong barrier. However, after a few sec in the bar, it never retreated above the 200 SMA. Since this report often peaks after 1 min, the drop was sustained, and you have a decent spread on the results, stay in and target the area just above the S2 Pivot around 3.3240 since that area was holding as support in the last hour or so. That would have easily filled for 11 ticks on the :48 bar. After reaching the S2 Pivot, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the S2 Mid Pivot 2 min later. Then it fell for a slow, but deliberate 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 45 min, just above the S3 Mid Pivot.