Nov 292012

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 11.29.12

11/29/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -5B
Actual: 4B
Started @ 3.696
1st Peak @ 3.637 – 0531 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.678 – 0535 (5 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.697 – 0641 (71 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply when a small loss was forecast caused a short spike of 59 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and fell another 23 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.668. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-25 ticks as it hovered below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it quickly retreated upward for a 41 tick reversal in only 5 min nearing the 13 SMA. Then it tried to go for a 2nd peak, stalled 7 ticks above the 1st peak, and retreated long again to fight through the 50 then the 100 SMA for 60 ticks over an hour later. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.