Nov 212012

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: -27B
Actual: -38B
Started @ 3.835
1st Peak @ 3.910 – 0701 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 3.857 – 0707 (7 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Greater loss in supply than the forecast caused a long spike of 75 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and approached the R2 Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.865. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 30-40 ticks as it hovered between 3.895 and 3.905. After achieving the 1st peak, it tried to go for a 2nd peak, failed, and retreated quickly to near the 20 SMA for 53 ticks. Then it bounced back up, fell back to hit the 50 SMA, then trended higher. The R2 was at 3.917. I had my sell limit there anticipating a reversal entry, but it never got there, falling short by 7 ticks. I got in much later going short on the R1 and nagging 14 ticks as it touched the 50 SMA.