-010913.jpg "Click to enlarge")
1/9/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 1.65/3.0
Actual: 1.86/2.8
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 145’17 (1301)
1st Peak @ 145’07 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks
Reversal to 145’18 – 1434 (93 min)
11 ticks
Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction after the FED commenced buying bonds. This caused the ZB to spike short for 10 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 145’14 with no slippage. Since it had to contend with all the major SMAs, the reaction spanned 5 min, but eventually eclipsed the 200 SMA by 2 ticks to bottom out. As this report normally averages 13-14 ticks and the minimum is 8 ticks, Look to exit at 145’09 +/- 1 tick for about 5 ticks at the 200 SMA and move the stop loss down to 145’17 (-3 ticks). It stayed stuck near the 200 SMA for about 20 min before reversing in the next hour for 11 ticks back to the origin.