May 022013

ZB 06-13 (1 Min)  3_8_2013


3/8/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 162K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 236K
Previous Revision: +41K to 196K
Rate Forecast:  7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
Started @ 141’26

1st Peak @ 140’18 – 0831 (1 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 141’01 – 0833 (3 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 140’14 – 0837 (7 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 141’11 – 1013 (103 min)
29 ticks

Notes:  Very positive report overall showing 74K more jobs created than expected, and a 0.2% improvement in the unemployment U-3 rate, in spite of a strong downward revision to the previous report.  This caused the bonds to fall for 40 ticks on the :31 bar, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin, the S2 Pivot and peaking just above the S3 Pivot.  With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 141’19 with 3 ticks of slippage.  Then you would have had an opportunity to capture up to 30 ticks as it bottomed at 140’18 several times.  Remember, all reports except 1 on the ZB have achieved 2nd peaks, so being patient and waiting for a target level if it did not initially fill is a safe move.  After the peak, it reversed back up for 15 ticks on the :33 bar, then fell again for a quick 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 7 min to nick the S3 Pivot.   Then it reversed for 29 ticks in about 90 min to the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Another amazing trade on the ZB!