Sep 052011

6A 03 12 (1 Min) 09.05.11

9/5/2011 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 4.75%
Actual: 4.75%
Started @ 1.0276
1st Candle: Peak @ 1.0243 / Retrace to 1.0291 / Settle @ 10275 – 1831 (1 min)
-33 ticks / 48 ticks / -16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0302 – 1842 (12 min)
26 ticks (2x top)

Reverse to 1.0262 – 1905 (35 min)
40 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: The RBA left its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a ninth straight meeting, citing deteriorating growth prospects at home and abroad, matching predictions. This caused initial indecision, followed by a small spike, and larger reversal. If using JOBB, you would have filled short. Keep an eye on the Range chart after the big drop in the first 6 sec. It flattened for 1 sec and then started to rise. I would close at about 1.0253 after the range chart shows a clear reversal happening at 8 sec into the candle. When you see the first candle indecisive like that, it is good to watch the chart to see where the trend is going for another candle and then get in with the trend. The 1832 candle does did not show much direction, so wait until the 1833 to see a long trend develop and put in a buy around 1.0282. I would probably close at 1839 after 3-4 candles were flat, even though it continued up for a few more ticks.