3/31/2013 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2100 EDT)
Forecast: 51.6
Actual: 50.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0352
1st Peak @ 1.0328 – 2106 (6 min)
24 ticks
Reversal to 1.0342 – 2229 (83 min)
14 ticks
Notes: Mildly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 24 ticks that bottomed on the :06 bar. It used all 3 of the major SMAs at the origin as resistance then crossed the S1 Pivot, eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot and could go no lower. The market had been trading sideways before the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0347 with 2 ticks of slippage. Keep an eye on how if interacts with the S1 Pivot. The :03 bar was able to settle below it decisively, so then look to exit at about 1.0330 with 17 ticks. After the 1st peak, it stayed within a few ticks of the S1 Mid Pivot for about 30 min, then reversed to cross the 50 and 100 SMAs and eventually eclipse the S1 Pivot for 14 ticks. Volume was lower than normal due to the Easter Monday Holiday, but it was still a safe trade.