3/31/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.3
Actual: 49.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2052.00
1st Peak @ 2054.00 – 2145:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 2050.50 – 2145:48 (1 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 2051.75 – 2147 (2 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 2047.75 – 2211 (26 min)
16 ticks

Expected Fill: 2052.75
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2054.00 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2054.50 (just above the PP Pivot) – move lower

Notes: Small and unsustained spike for the size of the offset. As it was bucking the short trend after the CNY manufacturing report and ran into the PP Pivot, it collapsed on the back end of the :46 bar. If you are still open and you see it start to retreat from the PP Pivot, be careful and exit or move the stop up to the 50 SMA area. After that it reversed for 14 ticks, then 16 ticks after a small pullback.

2/29/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 48.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 2.1175
No Move on :31 Bar

1st Peak @ 2.1040 – 2105 (20 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 2.1095 – 2117 (32 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order with no move on the :31 bar. Delayed short move of 27 ticks occurred in the next 20 min.

1/31/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 48.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.0420
1st Peak @ 2.0450 – 2046:12 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.0465 – 2051 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2.0410 – 2057 (12 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.0435 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.0460 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.0480 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Small, but stable reaction for a handful of ticks with patience. Then a reversal of 11 ticks.

2/19/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.5
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2840
1st Peak @ 3.2735 – 2045:00 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 3.2815 – 2045:23 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.2655 – 2059 (14 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 3.2700 – 2108 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 21 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and just above the S1 Mid Pivot, crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs, then hit the OOD and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.2770 with about abnormally high 11 ticks of slippage. As it fell quickly through several strong support barriers, it retreated quickly and substantially for 16 ticks in 23 sec. This would have see up to 9 ticks of heat unless you had a slightly worse fill it would have stopped you out. It then fell to hover around -4 ticks in the latter part of the bar between the S1 Pivot and the 200 SMA. You could exit with about 2-4 ticks loss or wait for the following 2nd peak which is strongly likely on this report, and with the larger bearish offset on the result. It fell for another 16 ticks below the OOD in the next 13 min, crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks back to the S2 Pivot and 13 SMA.