HG 12-13 (1 Min) 9.1.2013

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Mar 292014
 

HG 12-13 (1 Min)  9_1_2013

9/1/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.2
Actual: 50.1
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.2880
1st Peak @ 3.2850 – 2146 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 3.2880 – 2147 (2 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1 pts, causing a dull reaction short of only 6 ticks that hit the 50 SMA / R3. It was fairly tame in its movement. Look to exit at about 3.3855 when it hovered near the bottom. After that it reversed back to the origin on the next bar, then remained it a tight range above the R3 Pivot.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 9.29.2013

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Mar 292014
 

HG 12-13 (1 Min)  9_29_2013

9/29/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 51.2
Actual: 50.2
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.3175
1st Peak @ 3.3095 – 2146 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 3.3240 – 2201 (16 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 3.3140 – 2222 (37 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.0 pts, causing a moderate short spike of 16 ticks that started just below the S2 Mid Pivot, then fell to cross the 100/50 SMAs and hit the 200 SMA / OOD on the :46 bar. Look to exit at about 3.3100 where it hovered for most of the bar. After the peak, it reversed for 29 ticks in the next 16 min, all the way up to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 20 ticks in the next 21 min back to the 100 SMA and S2 Pivot. After that it traded sideways near the SMAs and S2 Pivot.

HG 12-13 (1 Min) 10.31.2013

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Mar 292014
 

HG 12-13 (1 Min)  11_1_2013

10/31/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.7
Actual: 50.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.3020
1st Peak @ 3.3080 – 2147 (2 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 3.3040 – 2152 (7 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.3135 – 2222 (37 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 3.3035 – 2326 (101 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.2 pts, causing a moderate long spike of 12 ticks that started on the 50 SMA, then rose to cross the 13/20 SMAs, the PP Pivot, and extend the HOD on the :46 and :47 bars. With the tame move on the :46 bar, it would be safe and conservative to exit on the PP Pivot, but knowing the average reaction is larger, you can patiently wait for more ticks. After the :47 bar it reversed for 8 ticks in the next 5 min back to the PP Pivot. After that it rose for a final peak of 11 more ticks in the next 30 min, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell to reversed for 20 ticks back to the PP Pivot 1 hr later.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2013

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Mar 292014
 

HG 03-14 (1 Min)  12_1_2013

12/1/2013 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 50.5
Actual: 50.8
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2040
1st Peak @ 3.2065 – 2046 (1 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2150 – 2104 (19 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 3.2040 – 2123 (38 min)
22 ticks

Extended Reversal to 3.1965 – 2208 (83 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3 pts, causing a small long spike of 5 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs, then only rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs on the :46 bars. With the tame move on the :46 bar, it would be safe and conservative to exit on 100/200 SMAs, but knowing the average reaction is larger, you can patiently wait for more ticks on a later move. After the :46 bar it struggled with the 100/200 SMAs for 4 more mine, then ascended for 17 more ticks in the next 14 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the HOD. It nearly reached the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 22 ticks in the next 19 min back to the origin. Then after a brief pullback, it continued to reverse for another 15 ticks in the next 45 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 1.29.2014

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Mar 292014
 

HG 03-14 (1 Min)  1_29_2014

1/29/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 49.5
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2435
1st Peak @ 3.2420 – 2046 (1 min)
3 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.2335 – 2109 (24 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 3.2385 – 2116 (31 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1 pts, causing a dull short spike of only 3 ticks that started on the 13 SMA, then only fell to hit the LOD on the :46 bars. With the tame move on the :46 bar, it would be safe and conservative to exit near breakeven, but we can confidently expect a 2nd peak move to be forthcoming. It took about 20 min to initiate, but it achieved another 17 ticks on the 2nd peak as it reached the S1 Pivot. Then is reversed for 10 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 20 SMA. After that it fell and traded sideways on the S1 Pivot.

HG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.2.2014

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Mar 292014
 

HG 05-14 (1 Min)  3_2_2014

3/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2045 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 48.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.1900 (2043)
1st Peak @ 3.1730 – 2046 (3 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 3.1785 – 2048 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.1705 – 2050 (7 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.1785 – 2052 (9 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and appears to have been released 2 min early as the 6A and HG both moved at 2043 although Forex Factory does not mention a premature release. This caused a large short spike of 34 ticks that started just above the OOD and 50 SMA, then fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the S1 Pivot, and nearly reached the LOD on the :44 – 46 bars. This would not have been tradable with the early move, but we can still document the reaction for statistics and trends. After the peak, it reversed 11 ticks before achieving a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks, nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 16 ticks to the 13 SMA 2 min later. After that it continued to trend lower as price action and volume dried up.

HG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.31.2014

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Apr 212014
 

HG 05-14 (1 Min)  3_31_2014

3/31/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.5
Actual: 48.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.0280
1st Peak @ 3.0170 – 2148 (3 min)
22 tick

Reversal to 3.0270 – 2203 (18 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 3.0180 – 2250 (65 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 3.0245 – 2255 (70 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a relatively large margin of 0.5 pts. This caused a short spike of 22 ticks that started on the PP Pivot / OOD, then fell to cross the S1 Pivot on the :46 – 48 bars. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0265 with no slippage after waiting 34 sec. This is normal as the report is slower to react, but then it would have allowed up to 18 ticks to be captured on the S1 Pivot. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA in 15 min. Then it pulled back to nearly reach a double bottom after 47 minutes. After that it reversed for 13 ticks, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA and traded sideways.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 5.4.2014

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May 242014
 

HG 07-14 (1 Min)  5_4_2014

5/4/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 48.4
Actual: 48.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.0770
1st Peak @ 3.0715 – 2148 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 3.0750 – 2207 (22 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a short spike of 11 ticks that fell to cross the R1 Mid Pivot, the OOD, and the 50 SMA on the :46 – 48 bars. It nearly reached the 100 SMA before reversing. With JOBB you would have filled short at 3.0750 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have allowed up to 6 ticks to be captured as it approached the 100 SMA. After the peak, it reversed 7 ticks to climb above the R1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA in 19 min. Then it traded sideways.

HG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014

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Jun 112014
 

HG 07-14 (1 Min)  6_2_2014

6/2/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 49.7
Actual: 49.4
DULL REACTION
Started @ 3.1545
1st Peak @ 3.1530 – 2146 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 3.1570 – 2149 (4 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a moderate margin of 0.3 pts. This caused a dull short spike of only 3 ticks that was stuck on the S2 Mid Pivot and LOD keeping it from falling further. With JOBB you would have not have filled in the first 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial move, it reversed for 8 ticks back to the 20 SMA, then fell as it started a cycle of oscillating between the LOD and 20 SMA.

HG 09-14 (1 Min) 6.30.2014

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Jul 112014
 

HG 09-14 (1 Min)  6_30_2014

6/30/2014 CNY HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI (2145 EDT)
Forecast: 50.8
Actual: 50.7
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 3.2000
1st Peak @ 3.1980 – 2152 (7 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 3.2085 – 2202 (17 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a slim margin of 0.1 pts. This caused a dull short spike of only 4 ticks in 7 min that did not want to challenge the LOD. With JOBB you would have not have filled in the first 20 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial move, it reversed for 21 ticks back to the R1 Mid Pivot in 10 min, but that move was likely corrective of the larger downtrend from before the report.