May 052013

6A 06-13 (1 Min)  4_10_2013 6A 06-13 (2 Range)  4_10_2013

4/10/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: -6.7K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -36.1K
Previous Revision: +2.5K to 74.0K
Rate Forecast:  5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.6%
Started @ 1.0497
1st Peak @ 1.0518 –  2130 (0 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0448 – 2131 (1 min)
70 ticks

Notes:  Strongly negative report that greatly fell short of the forecast on jobs created with the unemployment rate growing by 0.1%, and a small upward revision to the previous report caused an indecisive scenario.  This one was truly unique and very devastating as we saw a premature spike long just as the bracket was setting up at 3 sec before the :00 bar expired.  The long move took all of the bulls out of the market making the slippage on our stop very excessive.  With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0503 with no slippage, then the reversal would have filled at 1.0471 with about 20 ticks of slippage.  At least the stop worked and held at that level as it continued dropping to 1.0448 and traded between the low and 1.0472 for the next several hours.  As disappointing as this was, it is an anomaly for this report, and all the different aspects made it a worst case scenario.