3/16/2016 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 11.6K
Employment Change Actual: 0.3K
Previous Revision: +0.5K to -7.4K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.7533
1st Peak @ 0.7549 – 2030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.7513 – 2030:01 (1 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 0.7556 – 2030:37 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7536 – 2036 (6 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7588 – 2104 (34 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 0.7559 – 2134 (64 min)
29 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7547 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: stopped/reversed at 0.7522 – 25 tick loss (5 slippage)…then exit at 0.7522 at breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Conflicting results caused true indecision that saw the “Reverse if Stopped” feature cause more potential for harm. It spiked long then reversed quickly to stop out and fill short. Then it hovered/chopped +/- 6 ticks of the fill so either exit or tighten the stop to the OOD area. After the initial instability it trended long.

2/12/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -3.7K
Previous Revision: -0.4K to -23.0K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.8992
Premature spike@ 0.9023 – 1930:00 (1 Min)
31 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8933 – 1931 (1 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 0.8948 – 1932 (2 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8910 – 2101 (91 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 0.8930 – 2213 (163 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by nearly 19K while the unemployment rate also jumped 0.1%, with a negligible downward revision to the previous report caused a premature long spike followed by the true short move. The 14 tick spike that shot down, rebounded and fell again immediately about 8 sec before the report should have been cause to cancel the order. It was trading sideways near the 200 SMA before the early volatility drove it lower. With JOBB, if you did not cancel, your bracket would have setup with an anchor point at about 0.8992 on the S2 Mid Pivot. Your long entry would have filled at about 0.09008 with 8 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped at about 0.8984 with 4 ticks of slippage. It continued lower, crossing the S4 Mid Pivot for a total of 90 ticks from the top of the premature spike or 59 ticks from the origin. Then it reversed 15 ticks on the :32 bar, before continuing lower for a final peak of another 23 ticks in the next 90 min after crossing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for a meager 20 ticks in the next 72 min as the volume dried up. This is a case where you can easily make a 2nd peak trade for about 20-25 ticks with a sell limit on the :32 bar reversal after the bearish results are known. A target of the S4 Pivot would be prudent.

4/9/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2030 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 7.3K
Employment Change Actual: 18.1K
Previous Revision: +0.9K to 48.2K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 6.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.9340
1st Peak @ 0.9392 – 2131 (1 min)
52 ticks

Reversal to 0.9381 – 2131 (1 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9399 – 2134 (4 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 0.9384 – 2200 (30 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Impressive report showing nearly 11k more jobs created than the forecast and a significant drop in the rate. If you look at the range chart you see the violent swings after the initial spike lasted 2 sec, before it settled down and ascended to the R2 Pivot. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would have seen the initial spike blast through long with no fill as it exceeded the 12 ticks of slippage. The spike eventually hovered near the R2 Pivot for about 20 sec allowing an easy exit of about 30 ticks. It is also safe to wait for an exit in 2-4 min for about 10 more ticks. After a quick reversal of 11 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot, it climbed for a 2nd peak to 0.9399 on the :34 bar, allowing 38 ticks to be captured. Then we saw a 15 tick reversal in the next 26 min that crossed the 13/20 SMAs. It was started to rebound long again when the Chinese Trade Balance report broke to cause a large bearish move.

6/11/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.3K
Employment Change Actual: -4.8K
Previous Revision: -3.9K to 10.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9382
1st Peak @ 0.9344 – 2130:01 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 0.9387 – 2132 (2 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 0.9367 – 2134 (4 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.9384 – 2154 (24 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing nearly a loss of 4.8k jobs and about 15k less jobs created than the forecast. This conflicted with the a 0.1% drop in the rate to cause a choppy reaction that fell to nearly reach the S4 Mid Pivot then reverse to the SMAs later in the bar. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled at about 0.9369 with 5 ticks of slippage. A 20 tick profit target would have filled easily. Otherwise, look to exit near the S3 Pivot at about 0.9352 for 17 ticks, where it hovered after the drop. After that it reversed for 43 ticks in latter part of the :31 bar and :32 bar to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 20 ticks in 2 min to the S2 Pivot. It reversed to the PP Pivot for 17 ticks in the next 20 min.

8/6/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (2130 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 13.5K
Employment Change Actual: -0.3K
Previous Revision: -1.0K to 14.9K
Rate Forecast: 6.0%
Rate Actual: 6.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.9320
1st Peak @ 0.9286 – 2131:17 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.9294 – 2132 (2 min)
8 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9259 – 2232 (62 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 0.9267 – 2247 (77 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Disappointing report showing 13.8k less jobs created than the forecast with a negligible loss. This added with the a 0.4% rise in the rate and a small bearish revision to the previous reports to cause a short spike of 34 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot. Prior to the reaction at 2129:47, there was a premature short spike of about 23 ticks. This should have been a trigger to cancel the trade, but it would have been safe anyway. With JOBB (limit orders, 12 tick setting, cancelifgapped=false), you would been filled short at about 0.9306 with 6 ticks of slippage. It was very volatile in the first 16 sec, bouncing between 4 ticks of heat and 18 ticks of profit as it was contending with the S1 Mid and S1 Pivots. This is a scenario where a profit target works very well to your benefit. Otherwise, it settled down to trade below the S1 Pivot after the middle of the :31 bar allowing up to 20 ticks to be captured on the :31 or :32 bars. After a minor reversal, it turned into a fan as the gravity of the rate change was absorbed, capturing another 27 ticks in the next hour as it eclipsed the S2 Pivot and used the 13/20 SMAs as resistance. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 15 min back to the 50 SMA. Then it traded sideways around the S2 Pivot.