-070312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
7/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.1%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0226
1st Peak @ 1.0255 – 1531 (1 min)
29 ticks
Reversal to 1.0234 – 1533 (3 min)
21 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a large upward previous report revision. This caused a rapid long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0238. With all the major SMAs lower than the price action, the only barrier to cross was the R1 Pivot about 1/3 of the way up the path of the :31 bar. It hit its apex at the R2 Pivot at 1.0255 only 4 sec into the :31 bar then retreated and hovered a few ticks lower until 10 sec then fell more. Given the bounce off of the R2 Pivot and inability to hold that level, closing out around 1.0251 would be a good play. The reversal came back to just above the R1 level at the :33 bar. Then it chopped sideways at the R1 Pivot for about 30 min before slowly dropping again.