Monthly Retail Sales | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.3.2016

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_3_2016

4/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7648
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7630 – 2130:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7638 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7628 – 2130:48 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7634 – 2132 (32 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7612 – 2147 (17 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7623 – 2153 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7636 (just above the LOD) / 0.7627 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7659 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 0.7668 (above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7636 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7636 – breakeven (0.7634 likely worst case)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7642 – in the middle of the 3 major SMAs

Notes: Strongly bearish Rtl sales results overshadowed the mildly bullish Bldg Approvals to cause a decisive short spike with minimal inclination to reverse. This would have been a dull fill as it would have hovered on your fill point for about 20 sec in the middle of the :31 bar then the PP Pivot held it up for a while before it sought a 2nd peak and fell another 16 ticks.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3.3.2016

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 262016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 3_3_2016

3/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7355
————
Trap Trade:
)))Whipsaw between 0.7358 and 0.7345 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))+3 / – 10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7337 – 2007 (37 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7344 (just below the LOD) / 0.7336 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7365 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7376 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Small whipsaw would have just missed the inner long tier in the first second, then slowly drifted lower in the next 37 min. Cancel the order on the dull move.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2.4.2016

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 222016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 2_4_2016

2/4/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7189 – shift up 4 ticks to 0.7193
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7165 – 1930:10 (1 min)
)))-28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7181 – 1931:49 (2 min)
)))16 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7173 – 1933 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.7193 – 1936 (6 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 0.7173 – 2005 (35 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.7197 – 2022 (52 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7181 (on the LOD) / 0.7170 (in between the S1/ S2 Mid Pivots)
Short entries – 0.7204 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7213 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7181 and 0.7170 – both long tiers
Best Initial Exit: 0.7180 – 9 ticks total
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7187 – on the 200 SMA – move lower

Notes: Very disappointing retail sales numbers likely conflicted with the concurrent RBA Policy Statement. This caused an outer tier fill with a small reversal initially followed by more after a few min. Then swings of about 20 ticks followed for the next hour or so.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 272014

3/5/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.7%
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.11B
Actual: 1.43B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to 0.59B
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8980 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9023 – 1930:10 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 0.9008 – 1930:42 (1 min)
-15 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9028 – 1933
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.9013 – 1948 (18 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8966 (between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8956 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8997 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.9006 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report had the highest reading and largest offset since April 2013 with a decent upward previous revision, while the Trade Balance report also strongly exceeded the forecast by 1.3B with the highest reading since Feb 2012, coupled with a moderate upward previous report revision. The combination of unusually strong news caused a large decisive bullish spike of 43 ticks that had strong conviction in its climb and sustained the move. Your inner and outer tier short entries would have filled with about a second gap, then you would have been stopped with about 16 ticks with both entries with 1 tick of slippage for a combined 32 tick loss. Though this result was unfortunate, it was a rare extraordinary result and had a low probability of outcome. Still we will adjust the approach to trading combined resports such as this to just use 1 tier in the future to mitigate the risk and hedge the loss. After the peak was reached in 10 sec, it backed off 15 ticks in the next 30 sec, before achieving a 2nd peal of 5 more ticks on the :33 bar as it was flirting with the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks back to first impact the 13/20 SMAs. When this happens, it is a good place to buy the dip and look to get 10 or so ticks. This would have worked nicely as it achieved a double top about 41 min after the report. Then it traded sideways near the R3 Mid Pivot as volume dried up.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Apr 252014

4/2/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: 0.82B
Actual: 1.20B
Previous Revision: -0.04B to 1.39B
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.9199 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.9180 – 2030:07 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 0.9199 – 2030:29 (1 min)
19 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9171 – 2052 (22 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.9183 – 2057 (27 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9180 or 9176 (below the S1 Pivot or on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.9224 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report missed the forecast by 0.2% with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.38B with a negligible downward previous report revision. The conflicting results provided a great setup for the Trap Trade. If you used 0.9180 or higher for your long entry, you would have been filled, then you would have seen it reverse in the next 22 sec back to the SMAs allowing up to 18 ticks to be captured. With the SMAS and PP Pivot as a strong resistance barrier, look to exit when you see it that area. As I mentioned in the chat room, the retail #s are dominant, and expect a decent size 2nd peak in this situation. It fell for another 9 ticks beyond the 1st peak after 21 min, crossing the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in the next 5 min back to the S1 Pivot and 20 SMA. The CNY Trade Balance released at 2100 to cause the short move after that.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 252014

5/6/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9320
1st Peak @ 0.9307 – 2130:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9322 – 2137 (7 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.3%, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a safe and decisive short spike for 13 ticks. The peak crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and no SMAs as the market was already trending slightly downward. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9311 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at about 0.9308 as it hovered around the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing. After the :31 bar, it started reversing and returned to the origin, the OOD, and the 50 SMA in the next 6 min. Then some unlisted news event broke at 2145 to cause a brief whipsaw.

6A 06-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jun 082014

6/2/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.9232
1st Peak @ 0.9221 – 2130:08 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.9250 – 2133 (3 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 0.9224 – 2206 (36 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.9237 – 2238 (68 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.1%, with less impacting report, current account beating the forecast by a relatively large margin. This caused a small short spike of 11 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot and extended the LOD then held for 12 sec before reversing. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.9225 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit at breakeven to +2 ticks where it hovered below the S1 Pivot before reversing. After 12 sec, the current account took over to initiate a 29 tick reversal in the next 2.5 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it pulled back for 26 ticks to the S1 Pivot, aided by the slightly bearish CNY HSBC manufacturing reading. Then it reversed for 13 ticks in the next 32 min to the PP Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 8.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 252014

8/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.9296
1st Peak @ 0.9309 – 2130:03 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.9287 – 2130:04 (1 min)
-22 ticks

Pullback to 0.9302 – 2131:10 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 0.9288 – 2238 (68 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.3%, with less impacting report ANZ Job Advertisements potentially disappointing to cause an indecisive reaction. We saw a long spike of 13 ticks that nearly reached the R1 Pivot then reversed 1 sec later to cross the 100 SMA then pull back to the origin area. With JOBB you would have filled long at 0.9304 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it reverse to hit your stop at 0.9292 for a 12 tick loss including 2 ticks of slippage. Then it pulled back to 0.9302 1 min later before reversing 13 ticks back to the 100 SMA. Then it pulled back again and traded between the 100 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot.

6A 09-14 (1 Min) 9.3.2014

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 182014

9/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.77B
Actual: -1.36B
Previous Revision: +0.12B to -1.56B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.9349 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.9360 – 2130:05 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9351 – 2130:59 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.9343 – 2143 (13 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.9350 – 2204 (34 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.9329 (below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD)
Short entry – 0.9372 (in between the R3 Mid and R3 Pivots)

Notes: Retail Sales report matched the forecast with no previous revision, while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by 0.41B with a moderate upward previous report revision. The conflicting results caused a long spike of 11 ticks that surrendered 9 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. This would have fallen well short of the short entry at 20 ticks. It hovered between 0.9358 and 0.9360 for about 10 sec to allow a consolidation point above the R2 Pivot to manually move the short entry. If you did, you would have seen an opportunity to exit with 6-8 ticks as the :31 bar was expiring. It continued to reverse for another 8 ticks in the next 12 min to the 100 SMA. Then it pulled back 7 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot after another 21 min.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 192014

9/30/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (2030 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (BE EXIT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8674 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8648 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8658 – 2130:33 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.8635 – 2135 (5 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 0.8651 – 2145 (15 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8620 – 2216 (46 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 0.8634 – 2222 (52 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8663 – shift to 8661 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.8653 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8686 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.8695 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin with no previous revision. This caused a rather decisive short spike of 26 ticks in 7 sec that fell to cross the S2 Mid Pivot then retreat. Of note, the initial placement of the inner long entry should have been at 0.8663, but the downward drift of 3-4 ticks in the waning :30 bar should influence you to move the tier down 2-3 ticks. This would filled both long entries making an average entry at about 0.8658. Look to exit at breakeven when it reversed 10 ticks from the first peak and hovered for 10 sec midway through the :31 bar. With the behavior of the market and the result offset, look for the first opportunity to exit when it reverses and hovers. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to eclipse the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in 10 min to the 20 SMA before falling another 15 ticks to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot 31 min later. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 6 min then traded sideways near the LOD. In this situation, shorting a reversal top would be prudent the 2145 area colliding with the 20 SMA is a great setup with the S2 Pivot or lower target with patience.

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