Monthly Retail Sales | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

Nov 232014

11/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.78B
Actual: -2.26B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -1.01B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8662 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8684 – 1930:03 (1 min)
)))22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8672 – 1930:05 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8685 – 1931:03 (2 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8663 – 1932:13 (3 min)
)))-22 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.8620 – 1940 (10 min)
65 ticks

Pullback to 0.8677 – 2031 (61 min)
57 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8643 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8680 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report strongly exceeded the forecast with no previous revision while the Trade Balance report fell short of the forecast by nearly 0.5B with a moderate downward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reach the R1 Pivot then retreat. This would have filled the short entry with about 4 ticks to spare, then quickly backed off and hovered for 6 sec allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover between the fill point and the R1 Pivot and reversed again as the :32 bar started for 22 ticks into the :33 bar. This would have allowed up to 15 ticks to be captured in the vicinity of the SMAs and OOD. After that it continued to make a dramatic nose dive for another 43 ticks in the next 7 min to the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 57 ticks in 51 min to the R1 Pivot.

6A 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.3%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -1.85B
Actual: -1.32B
Previous Revision: +0.02B to -2.24B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8399 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8417 – 1930:02 (1 min)
)))18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8399 – 1930:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8416 – 1930:25 (2 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.8410 – 1936 (6 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.8425 – 1940 (10 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.8394 – 2041 (71 min)
31 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.8381 (in between the OOD and LOD / S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.8417 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report exceeded the forecast with a small upward previous report revision while the Trade Balance report exceeded the forecast by about 0.5B with a negligible upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 18 ticks in 2 sec that rose to cross the PP and R1 Mid Pivots, then retreat. This would filled the short entry depending on your placement if at 0.8417 or lower, then quickly backed off and chopped around 0.8405 for 10 sec allowing about 12 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back to hover around the R1 Mid Pivot for the remainder of the bar. After that it reversed for 6 ticks in 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Pivot. Then it trickled lower for 31 ticks in the next hour to the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 1.8.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jan 192015

1/8/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EDT)
Retail Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.8080 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.8068 – 1930:11 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8082 – 1932:14 (3 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.8070 – 1936 (6 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.8102 – 2013 (43 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8069 (on the LOD) / 0.8060 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8092 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.8102 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast with no previous revision. This caused a choppy short move of 12 ticks in 11 sec that started above the 100 SMA and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs, the OOD, the PP Pivot, and eclipse the LOD. It reversed 14 ticks in the next 2 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD. This would have been an ideal setup for the trap trade. Your inner long entry would have filled at 0.8069, then allowed up to 12 ticks to be captured on the reversal. After that it pulled back 12 ticks in 3 min back to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed strongly for 32 ticks in the next 37 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 2.4.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 042015

2/4/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EDT)
Retail Sales
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7747 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7736 – 1930:07 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7748 – 1930:13 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7734 – 1930:34 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7746 – 1936 (6 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7716 – 1948 (18 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7748 – 2028 (58 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7736 (just below the OOD) / 0.7727 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7759 (just below the HOD) / 0.7769 (on the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by a narrow 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a choppy short move of 11 ticks in 7 sec that started just below the 50 SMA and fell to cross the 100 SMA and reach the LOD. This would have filled your inner long entry to the tick, then allowed up to 12 ticks to be captured on the reversal where it hovered above 0.007745 for 14 sec. After that it pulled back 13 ticks to the LOD before reversing 12 ticks in 5 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks to the S2 Mid Pivot before reversing 32 ticks in 40 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. Then it continued to step higher in the next few hours.

6A 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 232015

3/4/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Trade Bal
Forecast: -0.94B
Actual: -0.98B
Previous Revision: -0.06B to -0.50B
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7815 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7809 – 1930:13 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7821 – 1934 (4 min)
)))12 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7797 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.7835 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: In an extremely rare occurrence, both the Retail Sales and Trade Balance reports matched the forecasts. This caused the expected dull reaction with only a 6 tick short move in 13 sec that started on the clustered major SMAs and fell to touch the OOD/LOD, then reverse. This would have fallen well short of the long entry, so cancel the order. It reversed 12 ticks in 3 min then continued to trade sideways as it shrugged off the non event.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 4.6.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 212015

4/6/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7566 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7592 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7567 – 2132:30 (3 min)
)))25 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7594 – 2218 (48 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.7584 – 2232 (62 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7555 (just below the 50/100 SMAs) / 0.7546 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7578 (in between the HOD and S1 Pivot) / 0.7587 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report exceeded the forecast by 0.3% with a small upward previous revision. This caused a long spike of 26 ticks in 3 sec that nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot to fill both of your short tiers and setup an average short position of 0.7582.5. Then it dropped 15 ticks immediately and another 10 ticks after 2 min to allow an exit at about 0.7569, just below the S2 Mid Pivot for 27 total ticks. After that, it climbed for a minor 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 45 min to cross the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 10 ticks in 14 min.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 5.5.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 092015

5/5/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7919 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7907 – 2130:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7926 – 2130:50 (1 min)
)))19 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7916 – 2134 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7938 – 2146 (16 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7907 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.7900 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.7931 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7940 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by 0.1% with no previous revision. This caused a short spike of 12 ticks in 6 sec that started on the 50/100 SMAs and fell to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the PP Pivot. This would have reached the inner tier to the tick and may have filled. If it did not, it hovered just above the PP Pivot for 7 sec to allow an opportunity to manually move the order up a tick or two to get a fill. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 44 sec to the HOD to allow up to 17 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in 4 min to the 200 SMA before reversing 22 ticks in 12 min after crossing the R1 Mid Pivot and extending the HOD.

6A 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 0.2%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -2.17B
Actual: -3.89B
Previous Revision: +0.09B to -1.23B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 0.7770 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7732 – 2130:21 (1 min)
)))-38 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7740 – 2130:41 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.7705 – 2141 (11 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 0.7724 – 2204 (34 min)
19 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.7731 -2319 (109 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7750 (above the S1 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7785 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Both reports missed the forecast with the trade balance really dropping a bomb. This caused a decisive short spike that refused to reverse. This is why we only trade the outer tier in this situation and use a reasonably tight stop. Your long entry would have filled at 0.7750 after 3 sec. Then it hovered a few ticks in the red before hitting the stop for a 10 tick loss after 8 sec. You could have closed prior to the stop out, but unless you had deciphered the results, there would not have been reason to do so after less than 10 sec. It continued to step lower for another 27 ticks in 10 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 19 ticks in 23 min and another 7 ticks in another 75 min. If you were savvy, after seeing the results, look to short the market in the 0.7730 area and use the S2 Pivot as a target for about 20 ticks.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 7.2.2015

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Jul 262015

7/2/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7612 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7596 – 2130:10 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7603 – 2130:50 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7585 – 2132:10 (3 min)
-18 ticks

Reversal to 0.7593 – 2133:14 (4 min)
8 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7583 – 2143 (13 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7600 (just below the LOD) / 0.7590 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7622 (just above the HOD) / 0.7632 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Retail Sales report fell short of the forecast by 0.2% with a 0.1% downward revision. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks in 10 sec that started on the 100 SMAs and fell to cross the 200 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have filled the inner long entry then quickly reversed and fallen to settle about 1-3 ticks in the red. It hovered for 40 sec to allow plenty of time to exit there. Then it fell another 11 ticks in the next 2 min to cross the PP Pivot before reversing 8 ticks in 1 min. After trading sideways for 7 min, it fell 8 ticks as it approached the CNY Services PMI report.

6A 09-15 (1 Min) 8.3.2015

Monthly Retail Sales, Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 062015

8/3/2015 Monthly Retail Sales / Trade Balance (1930 EST)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Trade Bal
Forecast: -3.06B
Actual: -2.93B
Previous Revision: +0.07B to -2.68B
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7252 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7277 – 2130:03 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7259 – 2130:07 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7274 – 2131:45 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7265 – 2134 (4 min)
9 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7285 – 2206 (36 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 0.7276 – 2213 (43 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7233(just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7272 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Both reports exceeded the forecast with the retail sales by 0.2% and 0.13B with trade balance. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks in 3 sec that reached the R2 Mid Pivot and reversed. This would have filled the short entry at 0.7272 after 3 sec. Then it fell quickly 18 ticks to the OOD but pulled back. This would have allowed about 5 ticks to be captured where it hovered at 0.7267. After that it pulled back 15 ticks in 2 min before reversing 9 ticks in 2 min. Then it climbed for a final peak of 8 more ticks in 32 min before reversing 9 ticks in 7 min.

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