-041212.jpg "Click to enlarge")
4/12/2012 CNY Quarterly GDP (1600 HI time / 2200 EDT)
Forecast: 8.4%
Actual: 8.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPike with 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0200 (1559)
1st Peak @ 1.0159 – 1602 (3 min)
41 ticks
Reversal to 1.0173 – 1604 (5 min)
14 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0145 – 1653 (54 min)
55 ticks
Reversal to 1.0159 – 1729 (90 min)
14 ticks
Notes: Results released 1 min early, so spike moved at 15:59:00. Fairly negative report disappointed the traders. This caused a short spike of 41 ticks that peaked on the :02 bar, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the S1 Pivot. Due to the gravity of the report and the infrequency, it was able to sustain the large drop and kept chopping lower after a small 14 tick reversal. The market had been trading sideways prior to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 1.0191 with about 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks toward the end of the :00 bar and closer to 30 if you were patient. The S1 is also a convenient exit point and would have given you 34 ticks on the:06 bar. It achieved a Final peak of 55 ticks at 1.0145 on the :53 bar. The reversal yielded 14 ticks in about 36 min after the Final peak, crossing the 50 SMA, then peaking on the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA.