-100112.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/1/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.25%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0298
1st Peak @ 1.0236 – 1831 (1 min)
62 ticks
Reversal to 1.0276 – 1834 (4 min)
40 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0233 – 1926 (56 min)
65 ticks
Final Peak @ 1.0229 – 2013 (103 min)
69 ticks
Reverse to 1.0249 – 2033 (123 min)
20 ticks
Notes: With economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, and risks to the global outlook , the RBA decided to cut interest rates by 25 BP to the surprise of most. This caused a rather large short spike that dove over 60 ticks in 2 seconds. With the market trading mostly sideways before the news in a tight range, it was prime to react bearishly to the outcome. With JOBB you would have filled with about 14 ticks of slippage at 1.0277. Then you would have an opportunity to close out quickly with about 25 ticks. As the spike shot down quickly and crossed the S1 and S2 Pivots, it was unable to sustain its fall and retraced in the later part of the bar to leave 30 ticks on the tail naked. The initial reversal came back up to the S1 Pivot before falling again to a 2nd peak a few ticks lower. Then it claimed a few more ticks on the final peak before revering for 20 ticks 2 hrs after the report broke.