-100312.jpg "Click to enlarge")
10/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0155
1st Peak @ 1.0140 / Reverse to 1.0162 – 1531 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 7 ticks
2nd Peak @ 1.0121 – 1558 (28 min)
34 ticks
Reversal to 1.0158 – 1701 (91 min)
37 ticks
Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. AUS Building Approvals broke at the same time, mildly exceeding the forecast. The offsetting reports caused indecision on the intial reaction, as it spiked 15 ticks short crossing the PP Pivot, then reversed long crossing the 50 SMA for 22 ticks in 4 sec. This would have hit your stop loss before you could act and yielded a 15 tick loss. This is the first Retail Sales report to be released at the same time as a non traded red report. In the future this will be cause to sit this one out. After the :32 bar, the negative retail sales report influence took over and the market shorted 34 ticks in about 25 min for the 2nd peak at the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 37 ticks just above the 200 SMA about 1 hr later.