May 062013

6C 03-13 (1 Min)  1_23_2013

1/23/2013 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast:  1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
Started @ 1.0060
1st Peak @ 1.0020 – 1002 (2 min)
40 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.9983 – 1035 (35 min)
77 ticks

Reversal to 1.0003 – 1100 (60 min)
20 ticks

Notes:  The BOC held its overnight interest rate at 1 percent but dramatically revised its projections to say any hike would be further away than previously thought, because of excess capacity, soft inflation and stabilizing household debt.  This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, but the bearish outlook caused a large short move of 40 ticks in 2 min. The spike did not cross any SMAs as they were above the price action before the spike, but the PP-S2 Pivots were crossed with ease, to find a short term bottom about halfway between the S2 and S3 Pivots.  With JOBB, you would have filled short with about no slippage at 1.0055, then had an opportunity to get up to 30 ticks as the :01 bar was expiring.  After the 1st peak, there was no interim reversal, as it continued into a fan to achieve another 37 ticks in 33 min.  Then the reversal reclaimed 20 ticks in 25 min to cross the 50 SMA.  After that it traded sideways, in a 15 tick range straddling the 50 SMA.