6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.22.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.22.2016
May 162016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_22_2016

4/22/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.4%
Core CPI Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1 to 1.3%
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7854
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7887 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))33 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7858 – 0830:05 (1 min)
)))-29 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7889 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))31 ticks
—————-
Continued Pullback to 0.7899 – 0833 (3 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7887 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7923 – 1015 (105 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 0.7894 – 1051 (141 min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7836 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 0.7875 (just above the PP Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7875 (short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7859 – 16 ticks (likely exit 0.7875 to 0.7881 – breakeven to 6 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7714 (just below the R1 Pivot

Notes: Double booked with Rtl Sales with all news strongly bullish. This caused a large long spike but still had a quick retracement to the origin in 5 sec. If you were quick in adjusting the profit target to that the 100 SMA area, you could have captured up to 16 ticks, otherwise you would have seen it hover just above the PP Pivot to allow an exit with a few ticks loss. After that it slowly ratcheted higher for the next 2 hrs then backed off.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.13.2016
May 162016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_13_20166C 06-16 (Second) 4_13_2016

4/13/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7816
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.7836 – 1000:03 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7802 – 1000:35 (1 min)
)))-34 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7818 – 1000:53 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7804 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.7848 – 1009 (9 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.7822 – 1030 (30 min)
26 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7800 (just above the LOD) / 0.7791 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7833 (on the OOD) / 0.7843 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.7833 – inner short tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7803 – 30 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7811 (just below the 200 SMA / PP Pivot)

Notes: The BOC maintained the status quo. This caused a nice slow whipsaw to fill the inner short tier then collapse to just above the LOD 32 sec later. This would have allowed at least 20 ticks to be captured with a little patience and a well placed profit target. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks to eclipse the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD, then reversed 26 ticks heading into the oil inventory report.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016
May 022016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_8_2016

4/8/2016 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.4K
Employment Change Actual: 40.6K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.1%
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7653
1st peak @ 0.7694 – 0830:08 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7673 – 0831:00 (2 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7695 – 0841 (11 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.7682 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Premature spike at 0829:46 would have disqualified the trade as it climbed 15 ticks and collapsed. Then it was frenetic in the ascent after the news and surrendered half of the spike immediately. The only opening hear is a buy on a potential 2nd peak at the .7675 area as it found support. Then look to capture 15 – 20 ticks as you evaluate how it handles the R3 Mid Pivot.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.18.2016
Apr 102016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3_18_2016

3/18/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.5%
Core CPI Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.3%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.7711
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7731 – 0830:08 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7719 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7727 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7709 – 0834 (4 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7738 – 0849 (19 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7704 – 0920 (50 min)
34 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7690 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entry – 0.7731 (on the R2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7731 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 0.7720 – 11 ticks (0.7710 if patient)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7714 (just below the R1 Pivot

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI. The spike was 20 ticks, so if you chose to place the short entry at 0.7732 or 7733, it would not have filled, but there was opportunity to shift it lower during the hovering at the top. Quick reversal for 12 ticks with another 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 50 SMA. Then a nice 2nd peak followed by a reversal.

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.11.2016

 CAN Employment Change  Comments Off on 6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3.11.2016
Apr 012016
 

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 3_11_2016

3/11/2016 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.2K
Employment Change Actual: -2.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.2%
Rate Actual: 7.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.7547
1st peak @ 0.7517 – 0831:03 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.7526 – 0831:43 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.7513 – 0836 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.7596 – 1005 (95 min)
83 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.7537
Slippage: 3 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7518 – 19 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7524 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nice stable short spike of 30 ticks with a low slippage fill allowed up to 19 ticks to be captured. After a minor 2nd peak, a huge reversal over 1.5 hrs that rode the 13/20 SMAs to nearly reach the R2 Pivot.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3.9.2016
Apr 012016
 

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 3_9_2016

3/9/2016 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 0.50%
Actual: 0.50%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7460
—————-
Trap Trade:
))) 1st peak @ 0.7488 – 1001:19 (2 min)
)))28 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7473 – 1003:14 (4 min)
)))-15 ticks
—————-
Final Peak @ 0.7560 – 1139 (99 min)
100 ticks

Reversal to 0.7545 – 1149 (109 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7444 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.7435 (in between the LOD/S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7476 (in between the PP Pivot/HOD) / 0.7488 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The BOC maintained the status quo. This caused a slow moving upward trend. With the slow pace, cancel the order. It developed into a long trend for 100 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs.

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016
Mar 172016
 

6C 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.2%
Core CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.0%
CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7256
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.7249 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7253 – 0830:14 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7244 – 0831:27 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.7251 – 0833 (3 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7225 – 0848 (18 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.7235 – 0900 (30 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.7236 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entry – 0.7276 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Good setup with Rtl sales conflicting with the CPI, but the reaction was too small and turned into a short trend.

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 2.21.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 03-14 (1 Min) 2.21.2014
Mar 102014
 

6C 03-14 (1 Min)  2_21_20146C 03-14 (1 Range)  2_21_2014

 

2/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EST)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.1%
Core CPI Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.1%
CPI Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.8948 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8927 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8968 – 0830:41 (1 min)
)))41 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.8955 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.8979 – 0835:13 (6 min)
)))-42 ticks
—————-
Pullback to 0.8958 – 0849 (19 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8938 (just below the LOD) / 0.8929 (below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8957 (just above the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.8968 (just below the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading, but fell well short on the concurrently released retail sales report. This caused an expected indecisive reaction that was large, shooting down 21 ticks to cross the S3 Pivot, then promptly reversing. The short move would have filled both of your short entries and peaked about 2 ticks below the outer bottom tier. Then it would have retreated strongly, reclaiming 41 ticks in 41 sec. If the upper trap bracket was left alone, it would have filled and let you walk away with 29 ticks profit on at least 2 contracts. Results would vary depending upon the exit, but the S2 Pivot would be a good target. The conflicting news aided the conditions as the bearish retail #s drove it short, then the bullish CPI reversed it long and sustained the reaction. It eventually eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot, then chopped between the S2 and S2 Mid Pivots for about 12 min before falling to nearly reach the 3 major SMAs on top of each other on the :19 bar, then it pulled back up and traded sideways.

6C 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014

 BOC Rate Statement  Comments Off on 6C 03-14 (1 Min) 3.5.2014
Mar 252014
 

6C 03-14 (1 Min)  3_5_2014 6C 03-14 (1 Range)  3_5_2014

3/5/2014 BOC Rate Statement / Overnight Rate (1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.00%
Actual: 1.00%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.9027
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.9001 – 1000:08 (1 min)
)))-26 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9028 – 1000:25 (1 min)
)))27 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.9006 – 1000:58 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks
—————-
Reversal to 0.9064 – 1022 (22 min)
58 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – about 0.9002 (25 ticks from anchor and in between the PP and S1 Mid Pivots)
Short entry – 0.9052 (just above the R2 Pivot )

Notes: The BOC left interest rates unchanged as expected with little surprising in the comments. This matched the forecast of leaving the rate unchanged, and caused an unsustainable short spike that catered well to the Trap Trade. The initial reaction fell 26 ticks to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot and hit the long entry with 1 tick to spare for a perfect entry. The quick reversal 17 sec later would have given you an opportunity to exit around 0.9022 with about 20 ticks when it collided with the SMAs. After that it fell again to the PP Pivot, then reversed for 58 ticks in the next 21 min slowly but deliberately as it crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD.

6C 06-14 (1 Min) 3.21.2014

 Core CPI  Comments Off on 6C 06-14 (1 Min) 3.21.2014
Apr 132014
 

6C 06-14 (1 Min)  3_21_2014

3/21/2014 Monthly Core CPI / CPI Report (0830 EDT)
Core CPI Forecast: 0.5%
Core CPI Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
CPI Forecast: 0.6%
CPI Actual: 0.8%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (STOPPED OUT)
Anchor Point @ 0.8885 (last price)
—————-
Trap Trade:
1st peak @ 0.8926 – 0830:08 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.8908 – 0832:05 (3 min)
-18 ticks
—————-
2nd Peak @ 0.8932 – 0835 (5 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 0.8902 – 0904 (34 min)
30 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.8876 (just below the OOD) / 0.8867 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.8897 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.8905 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast on the core reading and on the less influential regular CPI reading, and also exceeded the forecast on the concurrently released retail sales report. This caused a decisive long spike of 41 ticks as the news was all consistently bullish. The long spike started on the 13 SMA and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar. The long move would have filled both of your short entries and then stopped you out about 2 sec later for a total of 24 ticks loss. In the future when double booked with retail sales, we will only use the outer tier. After the peak, it reversed for 18 ticks in 2 min, nearly back to the R2 Pivot. Then it ascended for a 6 tick 2nd peak 3 min later. This would be a good place to look for a reversal as it fell to the 13 SMA quickly for 19 ticks, then another 11 ticks in the next 24 min.